First of all, thank you so much for your comments and for subscribing😊 second, bankrupt doesn't necessarily mean juat financial. We're talking about military and political as well; the trio.
You lose the tribes, you're bankrupt because the tribes are the ones that sustain the economic, military, and political pillars of saudi arabia
And they still haven't learnt any better since that comment was made. They'd sell their own grandmother if they thought it profited them.
And there's another saying in Britain : They couldn't even run a whelk stall!.
So how can they run a Nation? Or Country?
MBS is a perfect example of that. He sold the Arab soul to the Americans and years ago for Oil Revenues and spent his Sovereign Wealth fund on buying Football and Golf Clubs.
For MBS read all the Monarachies and Emirates and Shieks in the Gulf.
He is also these days collaborating with the Israelites and putting down the Palestinian cause.
Not too late for MBS to redeem himself, forget about the US and join BRICS as a committed member, enter into a settlement with Yemen (forget about the puppet regime in Riyadh, recognise Ansar Allah as the legitimate government of Yemen) and resume oil exports. It’s a feasible and forward looking strategy.
Thanks for a most interesting article. The fall of the Saudi dynasty would make Iran a world superpower. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen, but the US needs to plan for this possibility. Good planning is unlikely to happen with idiots like Trumpy, Hogsex and Little Marco in charge of US national security.
A reasonable write-up - thanks. Useful to read. Only issue I have is with the "bankrupt" part. There doesnt appear to be any evidence that the House of Saud is immediately or imminently bankrupt. What did I miss?
Possibly means MBS political rule and tribal legitimacy are bankrupt? Certainly if they can’t export much oil due to their two export methods, port and pipeline, being shut down then they will run out of money sooner or later. There could even be an uprising and revolution, that would be very unfortunate:)
Strong framing on the cost-exchange problem. Spending multi-million-dollar interceptors on cheap drones is a losing trade for any defender, and Riyadh clearly sees it. The reporting that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restricted U.S. use of their bases in May, and that Riyadh reportedly denied access for Operation Project Freedom, suggests the Gulf is already hedging before any collapse of the old bargain.
That also bears on the next move. If Washington can't count on Gulf access, a renewed strike before the midterms gets much harder to sell, and Tehran seems to be betting on that patience. I wrote about that side of it here: https://ozymandiasdesk.substack.com/p/will-iran-take-the-bait
Yes, but what tribal structure is strong enough to usurp the House of Saud? The Saudis were wise enough to neuter any tribal resistance and will be ruthless in retribution to any challengers. Yeah, this is a mess, but "it is better to stick with the devil you know." The alternative is even worse.
Good information and interesting analysis. Thanks.
I would add a layer - Saudi is a single source economy, oil products, but also has made itself dependent on foreign labour to do all the work. That labour only wants to work there for high wages and secure conditions, so when both are in short supply, the very infrastructure of the economy can no longer function.
Confidence is everything, so the military threats, the bombing of the airport, the infrastructure damage that is a clear risk to engineers, all create the conditions for cascading failure. And too few engineers and workers mean the refineries and pipelines take longer to rebuild, and the wells aren't so well maintained.
My own view is that the entire Middle East is currently at threat of permanent collapse, from Dubai tourism and banking, to demand destruction for its physical products.
I suspect much of the Middle East will revert to empty desert and warring tribes.
First of all, thank you so much for your comments and for subscribing😊 second, bankrupt doesn't necessarily mean juat financial. We're talking about military and political as well; the trio.
You lose the tribes, you're bankrupt because the tribes are the ones that sustain the economic, military, and political pillars of saudi arabia
So what now (or tomorrow)? MBS assassinated? MBS in exil? MBS resignation? Who to replace him? Thank you!
He murdered Jamal Khashoggi. He will not be missed.
First of all, thank you, john for your comments and subscribing😊
Second, yes. Because there is no saudi arabia or even the House of Saud without the tribes.
Third, if you'd like to have more information, please review my previous works.
T E Lawrence was absolutely right.
The Arabs are a very tribal peoples.
And they still haven't learnt any better since that comment was made. They'd sell their own grandmother if they thought it profited them.
And there's another saying in Britain : They couldn't even run a whelk stall!.
So how can they run a Nation? Or Country?
MBS is a perfect example of that. He sold the Arab soul to the Americans and years ago for Oil Revenues and spent his Sovereign Wealth fund on buying Football and Golf Clubs.
For MBS read all the Monarachies and Emirates and Shieks in the Gulf.
He is also these days collaborating with the Israelites and putting down the Palestinian cause.
MBS thought video games' strategies transfer effortlessly to geopolitics.
Not too late for MBS to redeem himself, forget about the US and join BRICS as a committed member, enter into a settlement with Yemen (forget about the puppet regime in Riyadh, recognise Ansar Allah as the legitimate government of Yemen) and resume oil exports. It’s a feasible and forward looking strategy.
Thanks for a most interesting article. The fall of the Saudi dynasty would make Iran a world superpower. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen, but the US needs to plan for this possibility. Good planning is unlikely to happen with idiots like Trumpy, Hogsex and Little Marco in charge of US national security.
First of all, thank you for your response, james😊 I always want to hear what others think.
Second, thank you for subscribing
A reasonable write-up - thanks. Useful to read. Only issue I have is with the "bankrupt" part. There doesnt appear to be any evidence that the House of Saud is immediately or imminently bankrupt. What did I miss?
Possibly means MBS political rule and tribal legitimacy are bankrupt? Certainly if they can’t export much oil due to their two export methods, port and pipeline, being shut down then they will run out of money sooner or later. There could even be an uprising and revolution, that would be very unfortunate:)
Strong framing on the cost-exchange problem. Spending multi-million-dollar interceptors on cheap drones is a losing trade for any defender, and Riyadh clearly sees it. The reporting that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restricted U.S. use of their bases in May, and that Riyadh reportedly denied access for Operation Project Freedom, suggests the Gulf is already hedging before any collapse of the old bargain.
That also bears on the next move. If Washington can't count on Gulf access, a renewed strike before the midterms gets much harder to sell, and Tehran seems to be betting on that patience. I wrote about that side of it here: https://ozymandiasdesk.substack.com/p/will-iran-take-the-bait
Thank you. Very intelligent analysis.
Thank you for your comments and for subscribing😊
Outstanding writing. Your best yet!
First of all, thank you for your kind words😊
Second, thank you for subscribing
EXCELLENT REVIEW OF MID-EAST POLITICS! "IT'S NOT OVER TIL IT'S OVER"
😊thank you
Wow.
😊
Fascinating. Thanks.
Thank you😊
Yes, but what tribal structure is strong enough to usurp the House of Saud? The Saudis were wise enough to neuter any tribal resistance and will be ruthless in retribution to any challengers. Yeah, this is a mess, but "it is better to stick with the devil you know." The alternative is even worse.
Good information and interesting analysis. Thanks.
I would add a layer - Saudi is a single source economy, oil products, but also has made itself dependent on foreign labour to do all the work. That labour only wants to work there for high wages and secure conditions, so when both are in short supply, the very infrastructure of the economy can no longer function.
Confidence is everything, so the military threats, the bombing of the airport, the infrastructure damage that is a clear risk to engineers, all create the conditions for cascading failure. And too few engineers and workers mean the refineries and pipelines take longer to rebuild, and the wells aren't so well maintained.
My own view is that the entire Middle East is currently at threat of permanent collapse, from Dubai tourism and banking, to demand destruction for its physical products.
I suspect much of the Middle East will revert to empty desert and warring tribes.
The exectionaer of Jamal Khashoghchi is getting high on his own supply! 😁