This is a good description of the current situation. The US defence strategy has long been based on sdvanced precision weaponry and lots of military basesbacross the world. The firing of senior military and intelligence personnel before this war says it clearly: They knew what the problem was but Trump was goaded into the war, probably by Netanyahou believing he could win.
So what is next? Iran can threaten neigbours, but cannot invade. Apart from the Houties their proxies are reduced. Should Iran choose to attack sivilian structures in neighbouring countries their own infrastructucture will be totally destroyed with national collapse and thus regime disintegration. So a mexican standoff. Iran cannot continue without Chinese support. And Chinese economy is totallybdependent on and intertwined with US and EU economy. A continued closure of Hormuz will cause stagflation hitting China hard. Their export based economy cannot be turnet more to onternal consumption overnight. And recession will threaten the regime. Add that US is forging ahead full speed towards space based dominance in communication, surveillance and weaponisation.
So what do I think will be the short term way forward? A ceasefire where shipping will gradually normalise. No toll booth, that will encourage investing in other routes leaving Hormuz et al dispensable. A fragile coexistence in the middle East.
And alternative energy sources will get a lasting boost.
The US will concentrate on satelite guided and AI based short and long range weaponry.
Iran will continue with their current strategy. Except proxies may be neutralised through new contellations in the area.
First, thank you so much for reading my article, responding, and subscribing😊.
This isn't about iran or israel, but rather the arrival of a new asiatic led order in the middle east.
The aim is to bankrupt united states via a war of economic and military attrition and force it to leave.
If u want a more detailed explanation, please read my previous work mt 3 upon a series that I wrote before the invasion of the war, and the two articles on the collapse of jordan and saudi arabia.
I thought it was an excellent article and can only say it is well past time for a new order to replace that which the USA has led for what seems like a millenium or two.
Not bankrupting the US, only reducing their influence. Bankrupting will cause the Chinese export to collapse. We are very much heading for a multipolar world.
China also has its problems in the way of corruption. It runs deeper and wider than Xi initially thought. Consequently institutions will in some cases have to be rebuilt. It is under way but has hampered them. I have written this elsewhere: arrests will increase. BRI is no longer expanding much: paying down on the Chinese investments is increasing in Africa and South America.
US, Canada, Europe, Australia: they are all working to become less dependent on the US for security and on China for strategic materials (mainly rebuilding the supply chains they relinquished in the name of quarterly reports / profit margins.
I would like to suggest that your suggestion that the Chinese and US economies are so intertwined that China won't allow Iran to win is unfounded.
The US has openly declared China to be its #1 enemy since (even before) Obama's "pivot to Asia". At what point does one stop tolerating a neighbor's threats and take "kinetic" action? Russia provided a clue in Ukraine. Russia is paying a price, but they (like Iran) see the price as "worth it."
Economically, China is already cutting off the US from exports in raw resources. China (and Russia) have been active in other parts of the world (such as the Sahel) developing strong relationships with new economies.
I do want to acknowledge Berletic's "continuity of agenda" and the surreptitious actions the US is taking in the Caucuses and South America, but these efforts don't seem to be paying off as much as they once did. Then too, what good will the efforts in Indonesia and Philippines be when all Chinese trade transitions to rail and the Strait of Malacca is no longer strategic?
There are dozens and dozens of objections and alternative futures about specific regions that may make it appear that BRICS won't be successful, but the Empire is dying and there is nothing that can stop it. The expansion of ICE and the growing murders of innocents may make that "revolution" manifest. Using Britain as an example, are Americans so cowed and terrified that they will accept the Oligarchy's domination? This one can go either way, but no matter which way, American hegemony will continue to shrink.
Peter Owen you know nothing about what China wants, ...Like you know something. (Did you get that from an oracle?)
China does not think anything like you or others of your ilk, and you are just demonstrating your ignorance.
There is a reason why the phrase "Inscrutable Oriental" came into existance.
If you judge everybody by your standard of thinking or perhaps more correctly, not thinking, you are inevitably going to look like a Moron to those 'in the know' ..Chinese or otherwise.
The USA basically declared war on China, only they were too cowardly to do it on a military level for fear of China making what Iran is doing to the USA look like a child playing with an insect until the adult came along and put an end to that and to the insect. (in this analogy, the USA is the insect, Iran the child and China the adult)
Your way of thinking is a large part of the reason the USA loses every war.
Compare China's over 5,000 years of uninterrupted civilization to Iran's more than 5,000 year old civilization. Now compare those two countries to the USA's 250 year existance I will not use the word civilization as I do not think the Americans to be civilized in the least.
Yeah the USA has an inherent right to look down on everyone and tell them all 'How it is'
...And the rest of the world has the right to see the USA for what it really is and to call it out.
You make some excellent points which I believe many (most) will misunderstand. Please allow me to pass it through my American Cultural filter. If my points don't resonate, let me know.
-- Chinese recognize that "Democracy" is a scam. (As an American, I agree). Most people don't want to be bothered with issues of national importance. Some have suggested a return to Monarchy is the cure. My (perhaps naive) understanding of how bureaucrats are advanced is because they demonstrate political competence. Not appeal to the mob. (I just realized I'd have to write an essay that no one will read. <sigh>)
-- the American "deep state" is only concerned with plunder
-- Americans have been fed the myth of "How the West was Won" which leaves out the racism and greed of those who "incited" (they didn't fight, they got others to fight) the wars of greed.
From my naive perspective, I believe Xi and Khamenei and Putin are making the right choices. Their "enemy" is my enemy -- The American Oligarchy. (Let's be blunt here, the people who killed JFK. They still hold power. It is up to Americans to rid themselves of this curse. I wouldn't mind some assistance though.)
Well, you actually said a lot of things that one can only conclude China would do everything possible to stop Iran otherwise China will be bankrupt if trade with the USA is halted.
I heard you say "multipolar world" like it was being infected with herpes.
I agree with Mitra, the Chinese/Russian/Iranian goal is to bankrupt the USA. Although, I see it more as a defensive move than any real desire to destroy the USA. (Contrary to the US desire to destroy Russia, China, and Iran.)
China has already separating itself from the US economy for several years at least. China has plans in place to move their economy elsewhere.
Africa and South America are "paying down" their debts. Now, were I a Rothschild banker, I could see why this is a problem, but we're talking about China here where the philosophy is "win/win". If you want to allocate a dastardly motive to China... OK, to destroy the USA as an enemy. Hmmm.... again "win/win"!
Canada, Europe and Australia are all under the control of the "International Oligarchy" (a piss-poor label, but better than the alternatives [zionism] that have been offered.) That "International Oligarchy" currently operates from the USA, but is in the process of moving elsewhere.
Probably out of order in my response, but "What Chinese Corruption"? I'm not saying it doesn't exist, but China executes its billionaires. Michael Milken and the Sackler Family are still billionaires.
OK, let's simplify this. You are saying China is going to lose out "big time" and I'm saying China has already dominated the field.
Where did you get tbe inference mulitipolar is horrible in my writing? You took that interpretation out of nowhere.
Also you infer that I said China would go bankrupt if USA did. Again you pulled that out of thin air. However, their economy is so intertwined with USA it will hit them badly. And that is difficult for the leadership. The social contrsct is control is acvepted for economic growth. Remember the protests during the hardedt covid lockdowns?
Chinese corruption: Xi has set out to stamp it out. Look beyond the usual sources. If you believe otherwise, by all means do so.
EU is indeed under a sort of control by old money who aim for a very centralised US of Europe. (And it is creating resistance.) If they succeed Europe will continue to degenerate because they kill the pluralism that has been the strength of Europe.
Dismissing USA completely is foolish. They have time and time again proven they can handle big changes. Will they likely regain the hegemony of the last 35 years? Very unlikely.
I dunno I think Israel is a powder keg and whatever happens there will continue spilling out across the region, also I wouldn't discount hezbollah just yet, they were causing serious damage to the idf before the ceasefire
Syria is under control of a US puppet. There's no reason to believe they aren't capable of developing their own Hezbollah.
Mitra has already extensively described the internal conflicts with the GCC nations.
Johnson has shown that Israel cannot maintain its oil resources.
Israel is a US proxy and the (ok, I'll say Zionists even though I don't believe the term is descriptive enough and excludes large groups that aren't really Zionists, but just capitalist crooks) will do whatever they can to maintain its influence in the area. However, will the Muslims continue to tolerate the Israeli infection? In this regard, it is similar to the Ukraine SMO. There will be no end to this "soon". After all, it has been on-going since 1948 when Israel was created.
Rich Jews are leaving for Argentina and Crete leaving only "stupid true believers" behind. And there have been many reports of reservists failing to show up.
Highly speculative, but it seems the direction we're going. Maybe I'm just being hopeful.
Wow. There are 16 millions jews worldwide (8 millions in Israël) and 340 millions US citizens. And you are teaching us that this small group controls a population 20x bigger than itself ... Do you realize that this is insane ?
You seem to believe that US is still the center of the world. But China exports to the US is only 15% of her exports, and only low value items like consumer electronics. High value exports like nuclear power plants or armament are exported to ASEAN or countries like Pakistan.
They do it through contributions to political campaigns. If you go against them they are so rich that they flood your opponent with money and you will lose. The group is very wealthy. And they have a strong media presence with 30% control in the US media.
A 15% contraction over a very short period hurts, in particular when the goods are at a nice profit and creating substantial employment. As these items are already sold worldwide there are no quick ways to reroute.
Let me also add what I have written many times before. The world economy is a spider's web. Tug hard somewhere and it is felt everywhere. With US economy hitting the rocks Europe and Canada will feel it. So will India and so on. The Chinese exports to these countries will then suffer.
China has lent lots of money to developing countries for investments to be repaid in raw materials China needs. But with significant reduction in exports the need for these raw materials reduce, which in turn hit the developing countries.
You are right. But what has changed is that the US financial indicators have become so horrible (40,000 billons debt for example) that everybody except the vassal Europe has prepared itself. The impact of the krach will be mitigated compared with last occurrences.
In particular, the importance of the USD is much lower in international commerce.
For example, let's take Brazil - China commerce. 170 billions USD in value. 40-50% is outside the dollar system.
And they are going to continue getting worse. The queue to buy US bonds is not there anymore. Yield will continue to climb unless they make some drastic changes, which seems unlikely.
They will not shrink fast. All the cheap Wallmart stuff comes from China. And they don't make a nice profit on these items. They probably make a much higher profit on armament.
Mmmmm, I have doubts about that. This was certainly the case 20 years ago. Now what we see in China is fully automated factories on a huge scale because they have a lack of manpower.
The sources seem to be pointing in different directions. Automation has always been just as much about quality. Untrained or unwilling labour is not ideal for succesful 6 sigma.
And more important, US bankruptcy will create s wave of economic problems. Is the yuan or rupee ready to take over? Not yet. Nor the EUR. So it will be a chaotic time indeed.
The central banks over the world have been diversifying to Gold at high speed for the last years. China is opening a Gold platform in Hong Kong. Now, Gold is bigger than US Treasuries in the central banks reserves.
Gold: 27% of global central bank reserves at end of 2025 (up from 20% a year earlier)
US Treasuries: 22% (down from 25%)
Euro-denominated assets: 15% (unchanged)
Dollar-denominated assets overall still lead at 42% of total reserves
Exactly, what you describe is a transition, not a disruption. And that was my argument, a US going bankrupt will be a disruption. The Chinese are all about the long lines. A disruption is not in their interest.
I placed the blame, if indeed we're blaming and placing, more starting with the decimation of area studies starting in the early '70s because of another big big series of miscalculations and the weird unstoppable institutional desire to forget it. Now, the apparent remarkable deafness and misreading of the opposition, not to mention the actual intelligence failure of pretty unbelievable scale regarding ammunitions etc, Is to me, truly remarkable. Of course, it's very easy to use a narrow view or a narrow view through a fun house mirror and come up with simple reasons why Uncle Sam and minions misread all of this. It's a serious question deserving of serious inquiry... (Not the oh so satisfying, but ultimately exhausting stacking of adjectives...)
Economists (for instance), like Paul Krugman, get paid the big bucks because he preaches the catechism that the Oligarchy wants to hear. He's provided a podium and praise that infects the minds of the young.
Another example, have you noticed the suspicion that now greets anyone returning "home" if they've been educated in the USA?
There are exceptions of course, the Chinese who spent decades in the US building American companies and who have American Children are returning. Walmsley has a report (or 3) on his YouTube channel. His 10 minute videos are packed with so much data they are a must for anyone who wants to understand the international economy.
Is that the Inside China Business guy? Plate o' shrimp, I think the algorithm served him up to me just within the last week or two. Very interesting stuff. His piece on Iran switching away from GPS to BDS Was pretty well done. Yes, though, the chasing out of the masses of doctorates and other post docs etc all Is another shocking example of," wait, what, why are you shooting yourself?" that can really only be born of ignorance or xenophobia, I guess. But again, people smarter than I have argued that it's a good thing. The, "we need a full separation," crowd. Sorry, I'm wondering here. Certainly, in China. Returning expats have to be interesting to say the least. Even so, there's a minor flurry in the press right now about numbers of Indonesian expats opting to terminate their citizenship and continue in the land of Uncle Sam. So it depends upon which pot and which fire we're talking about.
FWIW I understand the Chinese are returning more for better opportunities than any discrimination. OTOH — ICE is probably a factor. I might think about moving had I somewhere else to go
There’s an old aphorism that was served up to me by members of the expat Chinese community were I lived for some years. It goes something like, “each household should have a minimum of three separate businesses, ways of earning.” The children’s job, school, and helping with business only after homework is done. Without going on and on about it here, these are the coping mechanisms for survival that “naturally” develop among a relatively educated minority, not advantaged by certain dominant culture institutions, coping with relative precarious conditions. While things remain stable it can add to the recipe of success. Sometimes great success. When things go sideways, it can keep food on the table and, if done with care, the mob away from the door (by virtue of social currency..). When things really go sideways, or when opportunity proves too thin, it allows for the kind of trans-portability usually, in the west, assigned to another vanishingly small minority that’s been harried from country to country. (Sorry, I try for brevity, but fail.)
A couple of ballistic missiles with cluster bomblets fired at each ship would probably fully neutralize them without too many casualties. Its been a long while since I was proud of my country...
It contains kernels of truth — Iranian attacks, shipping disruptions, U.S. operational strain — but expands them into a sweeping, unverified narrative of American military collapse that is not supported by any credible reporting.
Meanwhile, China is apparently trying something radical: investing in industry, infrastructure and trade, keeping inflation in check, making friends through commerce — and committing the dangerous act of enjoying tea without a military base nearby. 😄
The world is not choosing between the US and China; it is adapting to a more complex multipolar reality. China has challenges, but so does every major economy. Supply chains are diversifying, not disappearing. The future is less about replacing one power with another and more about managing interdependence. Meanwhile, the Chinese is saying, “Come, let’s all have some tea and do business together”.
May I suggest correcting "Washingtons defensive architecture" to "Washingtons offensive architecture"? The original phrase makes no sense. Nobody is threatening to attack USA.
Description after the fact is not strategy. Montgomery claimed his normandy strategy was to hold the enemy armour in the east whilst the americans broke out in the west. That is how the tactical situation developed & was played ( and played well). It was not the strategy though. Your analysis takes hindsight wins and projects them forwards rather too optimistically.
The enemy always gets a vote.
The US hubris has relearned this lesson.
If the “strategy” is what you propose, Iran is going to relearn it too.
There is no such thing as a superweapon. Weapons are tools for a purpose. They can be countered.
Carrier groups are immensely powerful military formations. They are not negated yet.
I think you are overestimating Iran’s naval capabilities, particularly where submarines and the Hoot torpedo are concerned. I’d wager that the submarines and their support facilities were among the first things taken out. And if there are any left, Iran has never been known as a competent submarine operator. As far as the Hoot is concerned, it is a straight line unguided torpedo that can be defeated by a simple maneuver. Our carriers are operating beyond the range of their more sophisticated anti-ship weapons and will probably continue to do so. In order for them to be attacked, they have to be adequately tracked, which is not an easy task on a battle group randomly steaming around at 20+ knots. I doubt the carriers or large ships will ever enter the strait. If we ever put boots on the ground, they will be transported by aircraft.
Very interesting. Thank you Dr. Raheb I rather enjoyed reading your article. A rather nice, succinct analysis that the American population would do well to consider. I do think that it would be lost on the Trump people though.
Typical from the USA. Once again, due to 'Racism', they underestimate the adversary they are at war with. The Americans thought they were fighting someone with NO capability. The inherent Racism of the USA always leads to them underestimating their enemy. That is why they lose EVERY war.
The USA Losers go down in history as the 'Most Inept Country' in the history of the world. So inept in fact that theylose the SAME war not only once but TWICE! (...and still counting) ...to an impoverished country that has been under world wide sanctions for over 47 years!
Typical from the USA. Once again, due to 'Racism', they underestimate the adversary they are at war with. The Americans thought they were fighting someone with NO capability. The inherent Racism of the USA always leads to them underestimating their enemy. That is why they lose EVERY war.
The USA also says "The USA does not have to worry about the Houthis. The Houthis wear Flip Flops!" They are very quick to dismiss the 'Brown Skinned People' (as they say in USA)
This is a good description of the current situation. The US defence strategy has long been based on sdvanced precision weaponry and lots of military basesbacross the world. The firing of senior military and intelligence personnel before this war says it clearly: They knew what the problem was but Trump was goaded into the war, probably by Netanyahou believing he could win.
So what is next? Iran can threaten neigbours, but cannot invade. Apart from the Houties their proxies are reduced. Should Iran choose to attack sivilian structures in neighbouring countries their own infrastructucture will be totally destroyed with national collapse and thus regime disintegration. So a mexican standoff. Iran cannot continue without Chinese support. And Chinese economy is totallybdependent on and intertwined with US and EU economy. A continued closure of Hormuz will cause stagflation hitting China hard. Their export based economy cannot be turnet more to onternal consumption overnight. And recession will threaten the regime. Add that US is forging ahead full speed towards space based dominance in communication, surveillance and weaponisation.
So what do I think will be the short term way forward? A ceasefire where shipping will gradually normalise. No toll booth, that will encourage investing in other routes leaving Hormuz et al dispensable. A fragile coexistence in the middle East.
And alternative energy sources will get a lasting boost.
The US will concentrate on satelite guided and AI based short and long range weaponry.
Iran will continue with their current strategy. Except proxies may be neutralised through new contellations in the area.
First, thank you so much for reading my article, responding, and subscribing😊.
This isn't about iran or israel, but rather the arrival of a new asiatic led order in the middle east.
The aim is to bankrupt united states via a war of economic and military attrition and force it to leave.
If u want a more detailed explanation, please read my previous work mt 3 upon a series that I wrote before the invasion of the war, and the two articles on the collapse of jordan and saudi arabia.
I thought it was an excellent article and can only say it is well past time for a new order to replace that which the USA has led for what seems like a millenium or two.
Not bankrupting the US, only reducing their influence. Bankrupting will cause the Chinese export to collapse. We are very much heading for a multipolar world.
China also has its problems in the way of corruption. It runs deeper and wider than Xi initially thought. Consequently institutions will in some cases have to be rebuilt. It is under way but has hampered them. I have written this elsewhere: arrests will increase. BRI is no longer expanding much: paying down on the Chinese investments is increasing in Africa and South America.
US, Canada, Europe, Australia: they are all working to become less dependent on the US for security and on China for strategic materials (mainly rebuilding the supply chains they relinquished in the name of quarterly reports / profit margins.
I would like to suggest that your suggestion that the Chinese and US economies are so intertwined that China won't allow Iran to win is unfounded.
The US has openly declared China to be its #1 enemy since (even before) Obama's "pivot to Asia". At what point does one stop tolerating a neighbor's threats and take "kinetic" action? Russia provided a clue in Ukraine. Russia is paying a price, but they (like Iran) see the price as "worth it."
Economically, China is already cutting off the US from exports in raw resources. China (and Russia) have been active in other parts of the world (such as the Sahel) developing strong relationships with new economies.
I do want to acknowledge Berletic's "continuity of agenda" and the surreptitious actions the US is taking in the Caucuses and South America, but these efforts don't seem to be paying off as much as they once did. Then too, what good will the efforts in Indonesia and Philippines be when all Chinese trade transitions to rail and the Strait of Malacca is no longer strategic?
There are dozens and dozens of objections and alternative futures about specific regions that may make it appear that BRICS won't be successful, but the Empire is dying and there is nothing that can stop it. The expansion of ICE and the growing murders of innocents may make that "revolution" manifest. Using Britain as an example, are Americans so cowed and terrified that they will accept the Oligarchy's domination? This one can go either way, but no matter which way, American hegemony will continue to shrink.
I did not say China will not allow Iran to "win", only that they do not want to bankrupt the US. Also, I stated we are heading for a multipolar world.
Peter Owen you know nothing about what China wants, ...Like you know something. (Did you get that from an oracle?)
China does not think anything like you or others of your ilk, and you are just demonstrating your ignorance.
There is a reason why the phrase "Inscrutable Oriental" came into existance.
If you judge everybody by your standard of thinking or perhaps more correctly, not thinking, you are inevitably going to look like a Moron to those 'in the know' ..Chinese or otherwise.
The USA basically declared war on China, only they were too cowardly to do it on a military level for fear of China making what Iran is doing to the USA look like a child playing with an insect until the adult came along and put an end to that and to the insect. (in this analogy, the USA is the insect, Iran the child and China the adult)
Your way of thinking is a large part of the reason the USA loses every war.
Compare China's over 5,000 years of uninterrupted civilization to Iran's more than 5,000 year old civilization. Now compare those two countries to the USA's 250 year existance I will not use the word civilization as I do not think the Americans to be civilized in the least.
Yeah the USA has an inherent right to look down on everyone and tell them all 'How it is'
...And the rest of the world has the right to see the USA for what it really is and to call it out.
You make some excellent points which I believe many (most) will misunderstand. Please allow me to pass it through my American Cultural filter. If my points don't resonate, let me know.
-- Chinese recognize that "Democracy" is a scam. (As an American, I agree). Most people don't want to be bothered with issues of national importance. Some have suggested a return to Monarchy is the cure. My (perhaps naive) understanding of how bureaucrats are advanced is because they demonstrate political competence. Not appeal to the mob. (I just realized I'd have to write an essay that no one will read. <sigh>)
-- the American "deep state" is only concerned with plunder
-- Americans have been fed the myth of "How the West was Won" which leaves out the racism and greed of those who "incited" (they didn't fight, they got others to fight) the wars of greed.
From my naive perspective, I believe Xi and Khamenei and Putin are making the right choices. Their "enemy" is my enemy -- The American Oligarchy. (Let's be blunt here, the people who killed JFK. They still hold power. It is up to Americans to rid themselves of this curse. I wouldn't mind some assistance though.)
Have you read what I have written at all? You have missed the point on every single issue.
Well, you actually said a lot of things that one can only conclude China would do everything possible to stop Iran otherwise China will be bankrupt if trade with the USA is halted.
I heard you say "multipolar world" like it was being infected with herpes.
I agree with Mitra, the Chinese/Russian/Iranian goal is to bankrupt the USA. Although, I see it more as a defensive move than any real desire to destroy the USA. (Contrary to the US desire to destroy Russia, China, and Iran.)
China has already separating itself from the US economy for several years at least. China has plans in place to move their economy elsewhere.
Africa and South America are "paying down" their debts. Now, were I a Rothschild banker, I could see why this is a problem, but we're talking about China here where the philosophy is "win/win". If you want to allocate a dastardly motive to China... OK, to destroy the USA as an enemy. Hmmm.... again "win/win"!
Canada, Europe and Australia are all under the control of the "International Oligarchy" (a piss-poor label, but better than the alternatives [zionism] that have been offered.) That "International Oligarchy" currently operates from the USA, but is in the process of moving elsewhere.
Probably out of order in my response, but "What Chinese Corruption"? I'm not saying it doesn't exist, but China executes its billionaires. Michael Milken and the Sackler Family are still billionaires.
OK, let's simplify this. You are saying China is going to lose out "big time" and I'm saying China has already dominated the field.
Where did you get tbe inference mulitipolar is horrible in my writing? You took that interpretation out of nowhere.
Also you infer that I said China would go bankrupt if USA did. Again you pulled that out of thin air. However, their economy is so intertwined with USA it will hit them badly. And that is difficult for the leadership. The social contrsct is control is acvepted for economic growth. Remember the protests during the hardedt covid lockdowns?
Chinese corruption: Xi has set out to stamp it out. Look beyond the usual sources. If you believe otherwise, by all means do so.
EU is indeed under a sort of control by old money who aim for a very centralised US of Europe. (And it is creating resistance.) If they succeed Europe will continue to degenerate because they kill the pluralism that has been the strength of Europe.
Dismissing USA completely is foolish. They have time and time again proven they can handle big changes. Will they likely regain the hegemony of the last 35 years? Very unlikely.
I dunno I think Israel is a powder keg and whatever happens there will continue spilling out across the region, also I wouldn't discount hezbollah just yet, they were causing serious damage to the idf before the ceasefire
Iraq will be more than happy to kick the US out.
Syria is under control of a US puppet. There's no reason to believe they aren't capable of developing their own Hezbollah.
Mitra has already extensively described the internal conflicts with the GCC nations.
Johnson has shown that Israel cannot maintain its oil resources.
Israel is a US proxy and the (ok, I'll say Zionists even though I don't believe the term is descriptive enough and excludes large groups that aren't really Zionists, but just capitalist crooks) will do whatever they can to maintain its influence in the area. However, will the Muslims continue to tolerate the Israeli infection? In this regard, it is similar to the Ukraine SMO. There will be no end to this "soon". After all, it has been on-going since 1948 when Israel was created.
Rich Jews are leaving for Argentina and Crete leaving only "stupid true believers" behind. And there have been many reports of reservists failing to show up.
Highly speculative, but it seems the direction we're going. Maybe I'm just being hopeful.
The former USA is and has been a Colony of the genociding Jews
who have genocided Christians as well as others for hundreds of years of years
Wow. There are 16 millions jews worldwide (8 millions in Israël) and 340 millions US citizens. And you are teaching us that this small group controls a population 20x bigger than itself ... Do you realize that this is insane ?
You seem to believe that US is still the center of the world. But China exports to the US is only 15% of her exports, and only low value items like consumer electronics. High value exports like nuclear power plants or armament are exported to ASEAN or countries like Pakistan.
They do it through contributions to political campaigns. If you go against them they are so rich that they flood your opponent with money and you will lose. The group is very wealthy. And they have a strong media presence with 30% control in the US media.
The wealthy jews ... of course every jew is rich ... I have gone once to Tel Aviv and the city looked poor, even dilapidated in some areas.
You don't understand that Israel is like a US state and that they lobby like evetybody else in the US.
A 15% contraction over a very short period hurts, in particular when the goods are at a nice profit and creating substantial employment. As these items are already sold worldwide there are no quick ways to reroute.
Let me also add what I have written many times before. The world economy is a spider's web. Tug hard somewhere and it is felt everywhere. With US economy hitting the rocks Europe and Canada will feel it. So will India and so on. The Chinese exports to these countries will then suffer.
China has lent lots of money to developing countries for investments to be repaid in raw materials China needs. But with significant reduction in exports the need for these raw materials reduce, which in turn hit the developing countries.
You are right. But what has changed is that the US financial indicators have become so horrible (40,000 billons debt for example) that everybody except the vassal Europe has prepared itself. The impact of the krach will be mitigated compared with last occurrences.
In particular, the importance of the USD is much lower in international commerce.
For example, let's take Brazil - China commerce. 170 billions USD in value. 40-50% is outside the dollar system.
And they are going to continue getting worse. The queue to buy US bonds is not there anymore. Yield will continue to climb unless they make some drastic changes, which seems unlikely.
They will not shrink fast. All the cheap Wallmart stuff comes from China. And they don't make a nice profit on these items. They probably make a much higher profit on armament.
Quite a bit of the cheap stuff is made by forced labour or very poorly paid labour outside the more expensive areas. So there is real profit.
And if the US should go bankrupt all that cheap stuff is the first to go, food and other absolute necessities will be priority.
Mmmmm, I have doubts about that. This was certainly the case 20 years ago. Now what we see in China is fully automated factories on a huge scale because they have a lack of manpower.
The sources seem to be pointing in different directions. Automation has always been just as much about quality. Untrained or unwilling labour is not ideal for succesful 6 sigma.
And more important, US bankruptcy will create s wave of economic problems. Is the yuan or rupee ready to take over? Not yet. Nor the EUR. So it will be a chaotic time indeed.
The central banks over the world have been diversifying to Gold at high speed for the last years. China is opening a Gold platform in Hong Kong. Now, Gold is bigger than US Treasuries in the central banks reserves.
Gold: 27% of global central bank reserves at end of 2025 (up from 20% a year earlier)
US Treasuries: 22% (down from 25%)
Euro-denominated assets: 15% (unchanged)
Dollar-denominated assets overall still lead at 42% of total reserves
Exactly, what you describe is a transition, not a disruption. And that was my argument, a US going bankrupt will be a disruption. The Chinese are all about the long lines. A disruption is not in their interest.
I placed the blame, if indeed we're blaming and placing, more starting with the decimation of area studies starting in the early '70s because of another big big series of miscalculations and the weird unstoppable institutional desire to forget it. Now, the apparent remarkable deafness and misreading of the opposition, not to mention the actual intelligence failure of pretty unbelievable scale regarding ammunitions etc, Is to me, truly remarkable. Of course, it's very easy to use a narrow view or a narrow view through a fun house mirror and come up with simple reasons why Uncle Sam and minions misread all of this. It's a serious question deserving of serious inquiry... (Not the oh so satisfying, but ultimately exhausting stacking of adjectives...)
Economists (for instance), like Paul Krugman, get paid the big bucks because he preaches the catechism that the Oligarchy wants to hear. He's provided a podium and praise that infects the minds of the young.
Another example, have you noticed the suspicion that now greets anyone returning "home" if they've been educated in the USA?
There are exceptions of course, the Chinese who spent decades in the US building American companies and who have American Children are returning. Walmsley has a report (or 3) on his YouTube channel. His 10 minute videos are packed with so much data they are a must for anyone who wants to understand the international economy.
Is that the Inside China Business guy? Plate o' shrimp, I think the algorithm served him up to me just within the last week or two. Very interesting stuff. His piece on Iran switching away from GPS to BDS Was pretty well done. Yes, though, the chasing out of the masses of doctorates and other post docs etc all Is another shocking example of," wait, what, why are you shooting yourself?" that can really only be born of ignorance or xenophobia, I guess. But again, people smarter than I have argued that it's a good thing. The, "we need a full separation," crowd. Sorry, I'm wondering here. Certainly, in China. Returning expats have to be interesting to say the least. Even so, there's a minor flurry in the press right now about numbers of Indonesian expats opting to terminate their citizenship and continue in the land of Uncle Sam. So it depends upon which pot and which fire we're talking about.
FWIW I understand the Chinese are returning more for better opportunities than any discrimination. OTOH — ICE is probably a factor. I might think about moving had I somewhere else to go
There’s an old aphorism that was served up to me by members of the expat Chinese community were I lived for some years. It goes something like, “each household should have a minimum of three separate businesses, ways of earning.” The children’s job, school, and helping with business only after homework is done. Without going on and on about it here, these are the coping mechanisms for survival that “naturally” develop among a relatively educated minority, not advantaged by certain dominant culture institutions, coping with relative precarious conditions. While things remain stable it can add to the recipe of success. Sometimes great success. When things go sideways, it can keep food on the table and, if done with care, the mob away from the door (by virtue of social currency..). When things really go sideways, or when opportunity proves too thin, it allows for the kind of trans-portability usually, in the west, assigned to another vanishingly small minority that’s been harried from country to country. (Sorry, I try for brevity, but fail.)
Aircraft carriers are just huge floating targets.
A couple of ballistic missiles with cluster bomblets fired at each ship would probably fully neutralize them without too many casualties. Its been a long while since I was proud of my country...
THIS WAR HAS TRAPPED TOO MANY HUMANS! THERE ARE NO WINNERS!!!!
The article is not accurate.
It contains kernels of truth — Iranian attacks, shipping disruptions, U.S. operational strain — but expands them into a sweeping, unverified narrative of American military collapse that is not supported by any credible reporting.
Meanwhile, China is apparently trying something radical: investing in industry, infrastructure and trade, keeping inflation in check, making friends through commerce — and committing the dangerous act of enjoying tea without a military base nearby. 😄
The world is not choosing between the US and China; it is adapting to a more complex multipolar reality. China has challenges, but so does every major economy. Supply chains are diversifying, not disappearing. The future is less about replacing one power with another and more about managing interdependence. Meanwhile, the Chinese is saying, “Come, let’s all have some tea and do business together”.
May I suggest correcting "Washingtons defensive architecture" to "Washingtons offensive architecture"? The original phrase makes no sense. Nobody is threatening to attack USA.
Description after the fact is not strategy. Montgomery claimed his normandy strategy was to hold the enemy armour in the east whilst the americans broke out in the west. That is how the tactical situation developed & was played ( and played well). It was not the strategy though. Your analysis takes hindsight wins and projects them forwards rather too optimistically.
The enemy always gets a vote.
The US hubris has relearned this lesson.
If the “strategy” is what you propose, Iran is going to relearn it too.
There is no such thing as a superweapon. Weapons are tools for a purpose. They can be countered.
Carrier groups are immensely powerful military formations. They are not negated yet.
I think you are overestimating Iran’s naval capabilities, particularly where submarines and the Hoot torpedo are concerned. I’d wager that the submarines and their support facilities were among the first things taken out. And if there are any left, Iran has never been known as a competent submarine operator. As far as the Hoot is concerned, it is a straight line unguided torpedo that can be defeated by a simple maneuver. Our carriers are operating beyond the range of their more sophisticated anti-ship weapons and will probably continue to do so. In order for them to be attacked, they have to be adequately tracked, which is not an easy task on a battle group randomly steaming around at 20+ knots. I doubt the carriers or large ships will ever enter the strait. If we ever put boots on the ground, they will be transported by aircraft.
Very interesting. Thank you Dr. Raheb I rather enjoyed reading your article. A rather nice, succinct analysis that the American population would do well to consider. I do think that it would be lost on the Trump people though.
Typical from the USA. Once again, due to 'Racism', they underestimate the adversary they are at war with. The Americans thought they were fighting someone with NO capability. The inherent Racism of the USA always leads to them underestimating their enemy. That is why they lose EVERY war.
The USA Losers go down in history as the 'Most Inept Country' in the history of the world. So inept in fact that theylose the SAME war not only once but TWICE! (...and still counting) ...to an impoverished country that has been under world wide sanctions for over 47 years!
Typical from the USA. Once again, due to 'Racism', they underestimate the adversary they are at war with. The Americans thought they were fighting someone with NO capability. The inherent Racism of the USA always leads to them underestimating their enemy. That is why they lose EVERY war.
The USA also says "The USA does not have to worry about the Houthis. The Houthis wear Flip Flops!" They are very quick to dismiss the 'Brown Skinned People' (as they say in USA)
…there’s no surprise that we becoming more and more like rusha
https://donvandergriff.substack.com/p/our-generals-are-not-even-good-at?r=ls0i6&utm_medium=ios
Final…
Well said.