You see already that Trump has stopped the bombing . Maybe someone finally told him the truth … that we are losing bigly and we’ve also lost the Middle East . The only solution is to walk away. And walk away fast
OK, I read it. More Israeli input about what Americans must do:
"The Americans need to focus their efforts, as their hesitation about which strategy to adopt serves Iran, whose strategy is based on attrition, deception, and stalling.
In addition to the rather constrained options offered by the "Begin-Sadat Center", there is a fourth option: Recognize that it was a mistake, recognize that the murder of Iran's leadership on 2/28/26 has made nuclear weapons an imperative for Iran which will not be deterred at an acceptable price, negotiate a withdrawal from the region and a mutual non-aggression treaty between the US and Iran.
Since you claim to be so brilliant, tell me exactly what you know about the status of the 60% enriched uranium. I suspect you can not even tell me what form it is in. Far as Iran and nuclear, Trump tore up a working deal that was preventing uranium enrichment that was being actively monitored by the IAEA. The JCPOA was working. Trump knew nothing about uranium enrichment either and never bothered to ask anyone who did.
I made no claim to be brilliant, no need for sarcasm. I presume Iran retains a supply of 60% uranium, as I said, I’m also sure acquisition of nuclear weapons has become imperative for them after the events of 2/28/26.
Anybody who claims to be Dr X is making a claim of brilliance. You know nothing about the 60% enriched uranium or what form it is in and if it is even capable of having anything done to it by the US to prevent its being further enriched. Here is the latest IAEA report https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov2026-33.pdf and the enriched uranium is discussed on page 6 of the report. Actually, since Iran can prevent the use of the Strait of Hormuz, it has the world's economy totally tied up and soon there will be no more gasoline, diesel fuel or jet fuel. That will probably make the Great Depression look more like a recession in comparison.
Any introduction of American ground forces into Iran would subject them to continuous, unrelenting deadly attacks by Iranian FPV drones. Everyone should spend a while on YouTube or Telegram to watch what Ukrainian drones are doing to Russian soldiers. Russia is losing 1000 to 1500 soldiers per day mostly to Ukrainian FPV drones that individually stalk and attack them. There is as yet no effective defense. The entire area of ground combat would become one big killing field.
Our only reasonable option is to admit we have lost and accede to Iran's demand that we withdraw all US military forces from the Middle East hopefully in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted navigation. The only reason we were ever there in the first place was to protect our access to oil which as a net producers ourselves we no longer need. Walking away would not be the end of the world. After all, we eventually admitted defeat and withdrew from Vietnam and things turned out pretty well.
This is completely false. There’s no way they are losing 1,000-1,500 men a day to those drones but they slow them down all right. And Russia uses them too. The body exchanges typically run 1,000 Ukrainian dead for 38 Russian dead, do you’re just flat out wrong. Where you getting this crap? The Western media?
Yeah that's just false. They're pro-Ukraine. Ukraine has lost 2.4 million men in this war so far. Russia has lost 108,000. The lying Western media turns it upside down and says Russia lost 2 million men and Ukraine only lost 100,000. The Western media has been doing this all through the war, flipping things in reverse. I get most of my info from Simplissimus Substack.
I'm confused. I searched Simplissimus on Substack and found a profile page with no activity or posts let alone anything related to the war in Ukraine. Regarding Denys Davydov and the ATP Geopolitics YouTube channels; yes, both are openly pro-Ukraine, but both aggregate news from Ukrainian and Russian sources and both publish events that are wins and losses for each side. I do agree that legacy mainstream American media does not adequately cover the war although the news I have seen covered both Ukrainian and Russian wins and losses. Again I ask, where did you get your information?
Simplicius. If Russia were losing 1,000-1,500 men a day to drones, I assure you I’d be hearing about it. They do exchanges of the dead all the time it’s always say 1,000 Ukrainians for 38 Russians. The casualties have been running 24-1 in favor of Russia. The Hell with those Goddamn Nazis! Up with antifascist Russia!
Thanks for correcting the name of your Substack source. I don't have the time to read all his articles now, but look forward to reading an alternative viewpoint. I appreciate you letting me know in no uncertain words where you're coming from.
Your alarm is justified. Washington has reportedly considered an intensified two week bombing campaign, attacks on energy infrastructure and bridges, and limited ground operations to seize Kharg Island or positions around the Strait of Hormuz. But these “land options” do not yet amount to a publicly confirmed plan for a full occupation of Iran, and President Trump announced on 2 August that he had cancelled a new round of strikes while a possible regional agreement was explored. The danger remains acute because negotiations can collapse and military plans remain available.
A genuine ground invasion would be an act of strategic madness. Iran is a vast country of nearly 90 million people, with mountain ranges, enormous cities, dispersed military infrastructure and powerful security forces capable of sustaining a prolonged defence. The United States could destroy installations from the air and perhaps seize an island or coastal facility, but it could not bomb Iran into stable “total submission.” An occupation would demand forces and resources far beyond those used in Iraq, while exposing American bases, ships and regional partners to missiles, drones, sabotage and attacks across several theatres. Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrated that overwhelming firepower can overthrow governments without producing either political control or lasting victory.
The graver and more credible warning is that an expanding war could kill enormous numbers of Iranian civilians, thousands - or potentially far more - military personnel on every side, devastate Gulf infrastructure, close crucial shipping routes and trigger a global economic crisis.
Even a “limited” landing could become the doorway to an unlimited war: easy to begin, impossible to control and ruinous to everyone dragged into it.
Excellent analysis. Of course I say that, since I've made the exact same one. Trump is trapped. If he escalates, Iran can completely destroy Gulf State infrastructure. Hell! Iran can literally make them uninhabitable if it wants to.
If Trump does the smart thing and gets out, then the Israelis release that video of a teenaged girl making fun of his tiny penis, so he vacillates between bluster, ineffectual though deadly bombing, and then saying peace is at hand. He will continue to do this until he is removed from office.
But a ground invasion is simply impossible, and I'm frankly tired of all the doomers on the net clickbaiting that it's imminent.
When the USA hits rock bottom because of arrogance, that is when they pull out the jack hammers. Arrogance knows no boundaries, it is only limited by the available stupidity...which is in abundance in both red and blue spray bombs.
Thank you Dr Raheb, a rather succinct analysis and just as astute as ever. I would just like to say that I personally think that at somepoint in time Trump will inevitably have to withdraw. The world finds it irrelevant whether he admits defeat or not at this point in time. He just needs to withdraw.
You see already that Trump has stopped the bombing . Maybe someone finally told him the truth … that we are losing bigly and we’ve also lost the Middle East . The only solution is to walk away. And walk away fast
It doesn't mean he's going to stop in the future.His intention is totally different.He has to admit defeat, and he's not going to do it
You might appreciate reading this - https://besacenter.org/trump-and-the-art-of-the-iranian-deal/
OK, I read it. More Israeli input about what Americans must do:
"The Americans need to focus their efforts, as their hesitation about which strategy to adopt serves Iran, whose strategy is based on attrition, deception, and stalling.
In addition to the rather constrained options offered by the "Begin-Sadat Center", there is a fourth option: Recognize that it was a mistake, recognize that the murder of Iran's leadership on 2/28/26 has made nuclear weapons an imperative for Iran which will not be deterred at an acceptable price, negotiate a withdrawal from the region and a mutual non-aggression treaty between the US and Iran.
Since you claim to be so brilliant, tell me exactly what you know about the status of the 60% enriched uranium. I suspect you can not even tell me what form it is in. Far as Iran and nuclear, Trump tore up a working deal that was preventing uranium enrichment that was being actively monitored by the IAEA. The JCPOA was working. Trump knew nothing about uranium enrichment either and never bothered to ask anyone who did.
I made no claim to be brilliant, no need for sarcasm. I presume Iran retains a supply of 60% uranium, as I said, I’m also sure acquisition of nuclear weapons has become imperative for them after the events of 2/28/26.
Anybody who claims to be Dr X is making a claim of brilliance. You know nothing about the 60% enriched uranium or what form it is in and if it is even capable of having anything done to it by the US to prevent its being further enriched. Here is the latest IAEA report https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov2026-33.pdf and the enriched uranium is discussed on page 6 of the report. Actually, since Iran can prevent the use of the Strait of Hormuz, it has the world's economy totally tied up and soon there will be no more gasoline, diesel fuel or jet fuel. That will probably make the Great Depression look more like a recession in comparison.
We can hope he steps away even without admitting defeat (which we all know is defeat ).
Trump is off the rails with no direction and poor advice... Where do we go from here??? All parties need an off ramp....
Any introduction of American ground forces into Iran would subject them to continuous, unrelenting deadly attacks by Iranian FPV drones. Everyone should spend a while on YouTube or Telegram to watch what Ukrainian drones are doing to Russian soldiers. Russia is losing 1000 to 1500 soldiers per day mostly to Ukrainian FPV drones that individually stalk and attack them. There is as yet no effective defense. The entire area of ground combat would become one big killing field.
Our only reasonable option is to admit we have lost and accede to Iran's demand that we withdraw all US military forces from the Middle East hopefully in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted navigation. The only reason we were ever there in the first place was to protect our access to oil which as a net producers ourselves we no longer need. Walking away would not be the end of the world. After all, we eventually admitted defeat and withdrew from Vietnam and things turned out pretty well.
This is completely false. There’s no way they are losing 1,000-1,500 men a day to those drones but they slow them down all right. And Russia uses them too. The body exchanges typically run 1,000 Ukrainian dead for 38 Russian dead, do you’re just flat out wrong. Where you getting this crap? The Western media?
The YouTube channels of Denys Davydov and Jonathon Pearce called ATP Geopolitics. Where are you getting your information?
Yeah that's just false. They're pro-Ukraine. Ukraine has lost 2.4 million men in this war so far. Russia has lost 108,000. The lying Western media turns it upside down and says Russia lost 2 million men and Ukraine only lost 100,000. The Western media has been doing this all through the war, flipping things in reverse. I get most of my info from Simplissimus Substack.
I'm confused. I searched Simplissimus on Substack and found a profile page with no activity or posts let alone anything related to the war in Ukraine. Regarding Denys Davydov and the ATP Geopolitics YouTube channels; yes, both are openly pro-Ukraine, but both aggregate news from Ukrainian and Russian sources and both publish events that are wins and losses for each side. I do agree that legacy mainstream American media does not adequately cover the war although the news I have seen covered both Ukrainian and Russian wins and losses. Again I ask, where did you get your information?
Simplicius. If Russia were losing 1,000-1,500 men a day to drones, I assure you I’d be hearing about it. They do exchanges of the dead all the time it’s always say 1,000 Ukrainians for 38 Russians. The casualties have been running 24-1 in favor of Russia. The Hell with those Goddamn Nazis! Up with antifascist Russia!
Thanks for correcting the name of your Substack source. I don't have the time to read all his articles now, but look forward to reading an alternative viewpoint. I appreciate you letting me know in no uncertain words where you're coming from.
Your alarm is justified. Washington has reportedly considered an intensified two week bombing campaign, attacks on energy infrastructure and bridges, and limited ground operations to seize Kharg Island or positions around the Strait of Hormuz. But these “land options” do not yet amount to a publicly confirmed plan for a full occupation of Iran, and President Trump announced on 2 August that he had cancelled a new round of strikes while a possible regional agreement was explored. The danger remains acute because negotiations can collapse and military plans remain available.
A genuine ground invasion would be an act of strategic madness. Iran is a vast country of nearly 90 million people, with mountain ranges, enormous cities, dispersed military infrastructure and powerful security forces capable of sustaining a prolonged defence. The United States could destroy installations from the air and perhaps seize an island or coastal facility, but it could not bomb Iran into stable “total submission.” An occupation would demand forces and resources far beyond those used in Iraq, while exposing American bases, ships and regional partners to missiles, drones, sabotage and attacks across several theatres. Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrated that overwhelming firepower can overthrow governments without producing either political control or lasting victory.
The graver and more credible warning is that an expanding war could kill enormous numbers of Iranian civilians, thousands - or potentially far more - military personnel on every side, devastate Gulf infrastructure, close crucial shipping routes and trigger a global economic crisis.
Even a “limited” landing could become the doorway to an unlimited war: easy to begin, impossible to control and ruinous to everyone dragged into it.
Excellent analysis. Of course I say that, since I've made the exact same one. Trump is trapped. If he escalates, Iran can completely destroy Gulf State infrastructure. Hell! Iran can literally make them uninhabitable if it wants to.
If Trump does the smart thing and gets out, then the Israelis release that video of a teenaged girl making fun of his tiny penis, so he vacillates between bluster, ineffectual though deadly bombing, and then saying peace is at hand. He will continue to do this until he is removed from office.
But a ground invasion is simply impossible, and I'm frankly tired of all the doomers on the net clickbaiting that it's imminent.
When the USA hits rock bottom because of arrogance, that is when they pull out the jack hammers. Arrogance knows no boundaries, it is only limited by the available stupidity...which is in abundance in both red and blue spray bombs.
Thank you Dr Raheb, a rather succinct analysis and just as astute as ever. I would just like to say that I personally think that at somepoint in time Trump will inevitably have to withdraw. The world finds it irrelevant whether he admits defeat or not at this point in time. He just needs to withdraw.
I thank you for your kind words, response, and subscribing.
You also have valid points.