The Survival Mandate: How Tehran Reframed Dissent as a National Security Threat.

Beyond the headlines of "imminent collapse," the Iranian state is leveraging the memory of the 12-Day War With Israel and the new digital economy to consolidate power.

As 2026 begins, the smoke rising from student-led protests in Tehran and the temporary shuttering of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar tell a familiar Western media story as the “imminent fall of the regime.”

But within the halls of power in Iran, a more calculated reality appears to have emerged. One that not only relies on the Iranian historical and nationalistic mindset but also on an economic strategy that will burn away any remnants of the Western hegemonic monetary system.

To understand, one must begin by looking at the Iranian government’s most potent weapon: the collective memory of the 12-Day War with Israel in June of 2025. The scars of Israeli and US airstrikes and the targeting of civilian infrastructure remain vivid and fresh in the psyche of the Iranian population.

The state has expertly leveraged these memories by connecting the actions of the very people who supported the 12-day war to the figures now supporting the protestors. Also, by framing the current unrest through the lens of previous foreign-engineered wars in places like Libya, Iraq, and Syria, the government has been able to transform a domestic crisis into a national survival mandate.

Presenting these as a “Zionist blueprint” for a Syrian fication of Iran and highlighting the destruction of Syria by US-backed individuals, the government has reframed the current protests from economic concerns and oppression to sovereignty and total disintegration.

Thus, for the Iranian government, by linking American foreign policies in places such as Syria directly to their views towards Iran, they have been able to shift the conversation from economic grievances to national security and sovereignty.

This psychological pivot, bolstered by images of foreign-backed groups looting stores, burning vehicles, and killing police officers, has given the state a security mandate not seen for decades.

A mandate that is supported by a population desperately fearful of a Syrian-style future where Iran’s sovereignty is no longer guaranteed. Those sentiments became clear when thousands of citizens in different cities took to the streets recently, waving Iranian flags in a public display of support for their nation’s security.

This strategy is further reinforced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, which is currently working under “total war’ framework. For the IRGC, the looming threat of “round two” -a follow up military strike by Israel and US, justifies the total securitization of the streets. For them, “foreign backed” individuals, are not just protestors but essentially spotters for the next war and therefore, their job as a safeguard of the nation is to find and eliminate the threat.

Furthermore, the IRGC views the current crackdown not as a police action but rather as a military defense of the borders. Relying on Israel’s own social media posts, for example, such as Israeli intelligence admitting the use of spies in Iran, the IRGC has not only successfully linked street protests to the imminent threat of foreign attacks, but more importantly, to the cost of dissent to the betrayal of the nation and its survival.

The government’s strategy, as noted earlier, also entails an economic component where the state is creating a revolution in the kitchen through what is known as the “Kalaberg” digitalized coupon system.

Designed to bypass the instability of the failing Rial, the new digital system shields the population from rapid inflation by providing citizens with credits for a basket of essential goods, including eggs, beef, chicken, and oil, that are linked to their digital national ID.

The value of these vouchers is systematically adjusted according to inflation rates, thereby ensuring “stomach” stability. More importantly, this policy reinforces a mindset that discourages dissent against the providers of essential needs, thereby embodying the principles that “beliefs don’t bite the hands that feed you.”

This doesn’t mean economic challenges are eliminated. On the contrary, economic hardships persist, most notably high rents and the cost of non-essential goods, and unemployment for the youth. Furthermore, violent protests seem to expand at times.

Nonetheless, the government continues to operate, despite traditional Western media outlets that claim it is on the verge of collapse. Thus, highlighting a discontent between external perceptions and internal relations.

For the government of Iran, the current climate—marked by the presence of foreign agents, widespread protests, and the looming threat of conflict with Israel—has been met with a pronounced sense of nationalism and consolidated power. This mindset is not just rooted in the state’s military capabilities, but is also reinforced by powerful Eastern allies and support from the Global South.

Many in these areas have interpreted the recent protests as further evidence of US and Israel attempts to destabilize Iran and the broader region. Consequently, the combinations of these factors, along with West’s “double-standard” image, highlighted by American and European policies towards Gaza, has fostered a strong narrative of national unity and resistance, amplifying the government’s authority during a period of heightened external and internal challenges.

If history is any indication, not only does the government survive, but it also becomes even more powerful as clouds of war loom over Iran.