MBS'S Broken Covenant: Why the War on Iran Isolated the Saudi Throne and Pushed His Reign to the Brink.
By trading the ancient tribal covenant for a failed Western technical dream, MBS lost the loyalty of the men who hold the roads and the blessing of the men who hold the mosques.
The stability of Saudi Arabia has always been anchored by a sacred covenant between the House of Saud and its people. It was a pact of mutual reliance where, as in ancient times, the King provided protection and respect for the desert’s traditions, and in return, the tribes and the clergy, the pillars of the nation’s soul and land, provided the mandate to rule. This balance of power allowed the House of Saud to reign undisputedly for almost a century.
But that foundational pact was shattered with the arrival of the American-led war on Iran, where, under the leadership of Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the promise of protection, the very essence of the covenant, proved to be nothing more than an expensive illusion.
As a response to the assassination of their leader, Khamenei, and the targeted bombings of Iranian institutions, Tehran launched a massive retaliation that took the Saudi leadership and its allies, including the United States, entirely by surprise.
The severity was particularly evident on the American bases where the Iranians executed a surgical decapitation of the Kingdom’s technical shield. These attacks were not a mere military response; rather, a methodical destruction of the very infrastructure MBS had used to maintain his domestic authority. From the loss of the AWACS to bombings of the refineries and the shooting down of advanced fighter jets, Iran made it clear to the Saudis that the era of Western-guaranteed air superiority was over, and with it, MBS’s assurance of safety and security.
MBS’s military failure, however, inadvertently triggered an economic collapse. By effectively closing the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians not only choked global markets but also paralyzed the Kingdom’s primary revenue streams. With oil revenue drying up and Saudi skies no longer safe, it became clear that the economic and military promise MBS had offered in exchange for absolute loyalty had vanished. With that promise dead, the two primary tenants of the nation, the tribes and the clergy, responded by reclaiming their authority.
In the case of the tribes, MBS’s authority began to be rejected across the Kingdom. In the North and Central regions, the tribes of Shammar and Anizzah enacted a physical veto by closing the borders to Jordan and Iraq. In the South, tribal elders reached independent “non-aggression” understandings with the Houthis to avoid being used as a buffer. Regardless of the region, the tribes indicated that Riyadh no longer had the “permission” to govern, leading to a loss of tribal support and a resulting in military suspension.
This state of suspension is defined by a unique makeup of the Kingdom’s three pillars: the Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG), the Regular Army, and the Royal Guard. While these three entities have always operated as separate forces, the tribal veto has turned them into a pincer that now physically traps the Crown Prince.
The paralysis began with the Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG), the 125,000-man “tribal army” that has historically served as the internal anchor of the House of Saud. Because SANG is recruited directly from the tribes whose elders have now blocked the roads, their loyalty is to their kin first and the Palace second. Thus, when the tribes declared their veto, the National Guard simply “sat down,” refusing to move against the families and borders they were sworn to protect. By doing so, SANG effectively stripped MBS of his domestic control and handed the “permission” to govern the country back to the tribes.
Shadowing this stand-down is the Regular Army, a professional force of approximately 150,000 active soldiers stationed in military cities from Tabuk to Abha. In Saudi Arabia, while the SANG provides the tribal permission, the Army provides the professional muscle, and today, that muscle has also frozen.
Their hesitation is rooted in a deep-seated loyalty to the lineage of the “Sacred Anchor,” Prince Ahmed, and specifically his son, Prince Nayef bin Ahmed. As a former Colonel and head of Land Forces Intelligence, Prince Nayef remains the “Soldier’s Prince.” His strong ties within the “officer class” have created a silent barrier of resistance, causing the Regular Army to remain inactive. They are waiting for a signal from the Nayef-loyalist commanders, who believe that only this branch can restore the military’s honor.
This pincer movement between the tribal refusal and military hesitation has left the Crown Prince with only the Royal Guard, an elite circle of roughly 25,000 loyalists dedicated solely to Palace security. But without the support of the SANG to hold the streets or the Regular Army to guard the resources, the Royal Guard has largely become an isolated island patrolling empty palace hallways in Jeddah.
The tribal and military isolation is no longer just physical; it has become ecclesiastical. In the delicate alchemy of the Saudi state, the ultimate signal of a broken covenant is found not in a street protest, but in the silence of the pulpits.
While the high-definition broadcasts from the great mosque in the holy cities maintain a rigid, state-mandated tether to protocol for the cameras, a different reality is unfolding in the shadows. Reports from the interior suggest that in the medium and small mosques, imams have begun a silent strike by omitting the traditional prayers for the leadership. In the grammar of the Peninsula, this silence is the declaration that the “soil” has officially disconnected from the throne.
The era of MBS has reached its definitive conclusion. While the Palace walls are thick, and the Royal Guard remains at their posts, he is now an isolated figure, severed from the tribes that hold the roads, the army that guards the resources, and the clergy that provided his mandate. For the House of Saud, the future seems uncertain. What is certain, however, is that no Saudi leader can construct a 21st-century Western technical nation while simultaneously challenging the very same ancient religious and cultural covenants that granted the right to rule. It is a lesson that will not be forgotten, regardless of the leadership in charge.
This is very informative. I have never knew exactly how the Saudi leadership works. It seems to me that the tribal and clerics have a great set of checks and balances to keep a king in check.
If MBS goes, so will the American influence. NO MBS, no America in the Middle East. NO America in the Middle East, Israel becomes a nuclear-armed mouse in the region. What then?